According to an Oxford University study, 47 percent of existing jobs will disappear in the next 25 years. The report of The Economist magazine is that no government is prepared for this situation.
One of the election promises in every country is to give jobs to its citizens. But aside from increasing job opportunities, economists around the world believe that with the advancement of artificial intelligence, robotics, and other technologies, many more professions will disappear. In fact, the debate on this issue continues on how quickly to get to the projected point.
Art Bilger, a faculty member in the Department of Business Administration and entrepreneur, points out that 47 percent of existing occupations will disappear in the next 25 years, referring to the study conducted in Oxford. According to The Economist magazine, there is no government that has prepared itself for the extinction of these branches of business. Among the occupations to be deleted are areas that will affect both blue-collar and white-collar workers. So far, technology has only taken away blue-collar jobs, which has mostly affected those working in the manufacturing sector. Also, Read – How to Increase Employee Engagement?
To combat this structural unemployment and prepare people for the grim doom to come, Bilger founded a non-profit organization. The process of being unemployed has not only increased dramatically but has already become irreversible. Entrepreneur Bilger, therefore, calls on governments, universities, companies, and non-profit organizations to modernize the workforce.
One point needs to be made clear; mechanization is always a development that takes our jobs. For example, automatic looms take away the work of weavers. But it also creates new jobs. The mechanic must keep the machine running, the worker must use it, and many new jobs arise. Most of the time, progress in one area opens the door to others. For example, with the introduction of automobiles in the early 20th century, farriers were out of work. Because nobody needed horses anymore. But later on, the need for mechanics arose and farriers were the best choice for this job. Also, Read – Watermelon Seeds: Is it bad to eat watermelon seeds?
Unemployment is a major problem in developed countries today and will worsen in the future. In 2034, many mid-level jobs will no longer be needed. The winner of this business seems to be one percent rich for now. The approaching technological revolution is likely to wipe out the middle class. With the development of technology, computers will start to work more efficiently than humans, as well as work at less cost.
The future is not so secure for accountants, doctors, lawyers, teachers, bureaucrats, and financiers. According to The Economist, computers will be able to evaluate tons of data and make financial or medical decisions. On this path to less fraud or misdiagnosis, efficiency will increase. While the jobs of those working in these sectors are in danger, the earnings of the minority who continue to work will decrease significantly. You can estimate the effects of this situation on politics and social life. Also, Read – Amber Stone: What are the Benefits, Properties, Meaning of Amber Stone?
The mechanization and the transition to the computer cannot be stopped. The arrow came out of the bow once. Everyone needs to accept this situation. The countries’ view of these developments will be as follows; other countries will take the lead by using such technologies, so we must adapt to the new situation as soon as possible. Eventually, new ventures or companies will incorporate those out of their jobs. But all this will happen after the feared future has happened.
According to Bilger, the problem has a long history. The longevity we enjoy and the dysfunctional education system are among the causes of this problem. One of the suggested solutions is to pay people on a global scale for their basic needs. Afterward, these people can be provided with new goals by retraining. Others may start their own businesses or support creative ideas. In fact, this solution may even mean the resurrection of humanity. People who don’t have to chase money can eagerly work in the field they really want. Also, Read – What are irregular periods? Causes for irregular periods & Treatment
Bilger, in a radio show he attended, pointed out that the education system should be radically changed and training should be given for future professions. Art Bilger also underlined that the middle age group should be included in education again and contribute to the economy, and said that projects have been developed in this regard. According to Bilger, although many middle-aged people are not willing to re-educate, it is a necessary sacrifice. Apart from these ideas, coloring education is another method that has been mentioned. For this, technologies such as augmented reality can be used. On the other hand, since this is an immature idea, it may not come to us anytime soon.
A wide range of internship and apprenticeship options are also under discussion. The problem today; not having enough skilled workers rather than having enough jobs. According to Bilger, this is a priority problem.
What about after autonomous vehicles become widespread, will the drivers who do this job professionally be able to find a place for themselves in the new economic order by getting retrained? Nobody knows the answer to this question. Like every sudden change in societies, this new order will have winners and losers. The situation that will emerge will not be an optimistic utopia or social destruction. We’ll probably end up somewhere in the middle of these two. Also, Read – The insurance Guide for Hybrid Cars
Bilger in his interview on the radio: “What will happen when we reach unemployment rates like 25, 30, 35 percent? How can you tolerate this? Even if you can tolerate it, it will still be a question of what so many people will do. For me, having a purpose in life is an essential requirement for social order.” finished his words.
Robots Are Coming
Things won’t go away completely, of course. Many jobs will be redefined, but most likely will be unemployed because people will not have the skills they need to do them.
Many reports say that mechanization will end us. According to a study by McKinsey & Company at the beginning of 2017, up to 30 percent of 6 out of 10 occupations will be made by computers. An economist assigned to the Bank of England states that the jobs of 80 million people in the United States and 15 million in the United Kingdom will be taken over by robots.
Of course, not all professions are the same. In the highly cited study “The Future of Employment” conducted at Oxford University in 2013, 702 familiar occupations were examined and some of them (marketers, tax professionals, referees, etc.) were assigned to other occupational groups (eg psychologist, dentist). , doctor, etc.), it was concluded that it carries a greater risk of extinction than
In the past, professions that disappeared due to technology were often exaggerated. On the other hand, technology created more new jobs than it replaced. That’s why being hostile to technology has been called “Luddite Fallacy,” that is, “anti-autonomous nonsense.” The term was coined in the 19th century to refer to textile workers who smashed looms on the grounds that they would take their jobs. On the other hand, in the last 60 years, the only profession that technology has eliminated: is the elevator operator. Also, Read – Should I have an Insurance Cover in 2022?
Although, according to optimistic forecasts, technology seems to increase our welfare and save us from drudgery, in 1930 economist John Maynard predicted that his grandchildren would work 15 hours a week. On the other hand, today we work almost 15 hours a day.
Today’s technological revolution is much different from the industrial revolution. Change is increasing exponentially in a wide area. According to Jerry Kaplan of Stanford University, automation comes regardless of your job. Whether you are a worker in a factory, a financial sector employee, or a musician, automation will one day come before you.
Which Occupations Are At Risk
Before we get into the gloomy stuff, it’s important to understand that automation doesn’t mean losing your job. The data that 47 percent of existing jobs in the United States alone are at risk does not mean that these jobs will disappear. Simply put, these professions fall within the working field of autonomous technologies.
In other words; instead of disappearing completely, these things will become redefined. On the other hand, for the employee, there is practically not much difference between the disappearance of the work and its redefinition. Because the skills required for the redefined job will not be in the current employees. Professor Richard Susskind’s book “The Future of the Professions and Tomorrow’s Lawyers” points out exactly this distinction. “Most of the jobs you will see in the future will be multitasking jobs,” Susskind states that today’s lawyers do not establish a system that gives legal advice, but that the lawyers of 2025 will do so. “These people will still be lawyers, but they will do different things.”
So which professions are at risk?
Futurist Martin Ford, author of Rising of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, states that at-risk occupations are routine, repetitive, and predictable occupations.
Telemarketing is an example of an occupation at risk. This job is pretty routine and 99 percent likely it will become automated. You’re already getting automated calls.
The work of regulating taxes also consists of processing predictable data and will likely be done by robots. Robots seem to take over the legal field as well. Considering that most of the work done by legal consultants and lawyers consists of repetitions, we can say that these professions are also in danger with a rate of 94 percent. A study shows that; Around 100 thousand jobs in the legal sector can be done automatically in 20 years. Also, Read – What is Car Insurance: Check Cheapest Car Insurance in 2022
Chefs working in the fast-food industry are also close to being unemployed by robots like Flippy with artificial intelligence. The risk ratio of those in this profession is 81 percent.
Occupations with a Low Risk of Extinction in the Future
Futurist Ford divides professions that can keep up with the future into three.
In the first group, creativity is required; professions such as artist, scientist, and business strategist. However, at this point, Ford does not neglect to warn about the future by stating that humans are still superior to robots in creativity. Ford: “I can’t guarantee that 20 years from now, the computer won’t be the most creative being in the world. There are already computers that can make original pictures. We don’t know where this business will go 20 years from now.”
In the second group, there are jobs that require human relations. Nursing or other occupations that require you to connect with people may be included in this group.
The third group includes unpredictable work. For example, plumbers who may be needed in different places for different problems are included in this group.
These parameters are used to determine whether the future of occupations is at risk. Some of the evaluated occupations are; therapists, mechanics, healthcare workers, etc.
In professions that require creativity or dealing with people, it is difficult to predict what will happen 20 years from now, even though there is no risk in the next 10 years. Susskind thinks it is necessary to consider how much computers can change business life in the future. Check out – What is Face Rollers? How to use it?
Susskind thinks that the 2020s will be a time when job descriptions change, not unemployment. On the other hand, the situation is not clear enough to allow anyone to make a long-term career plan. However, Susskind saw that there is a belief that humans are indispensable, yet machines also enter areas that were previously believed to be made only by humans. Computers can already compose original music and beat professional gamers in creative desktop games.
Computers will also help people in religious matters. Although the risk of extinction of the clergy is as low as 0.81 percent, according to Susskind, algorithms will one day be able to fulfill this task. Also, there is already an app called “Confession”.
We talk about robots all the time, but this is not the only phenomenon that will affect future business life. Saadia Zahidi, head of education, gender, and employment initiatives at the World Economic Forum (WEF), states that there are other factors driving the change.
In the 2016 report of the World Economic Forum: Climate change, the rise of the middle class, the increase in the elderly population in certain regions of Europe and Asia, and the changing demands of women are issues that will have a significant impact on business life. Zahidi argues that all these factors will come together and cause changes in business life.
In the report, it is stated that we will see significant changes in automation technology in the near future. Zahidi defines the next three years as a period of change and relatively loss. While this does not mean that there will be widespread unemployment, it is something that should not be ignored.
According to Zahidi, automation can also make gender inequality worse. Because it is necessary for the working areas that are expected to become more widespread in the future; In science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and informatics, women are not as involved as men. On the other hand, women in professions that require more human relations such as health and education seem to be far from the risk of automation. Must Read- Burning Incense: Everything You Need to Know About Burning Incense
In the long run, women may be better positioned to respond to technological change. A recent study found that a larger proportion of men than women may be unemployed due to automation. Especially men with a low level of education.
How Can You Prepare Yourself for the Oncoming Change?
Justin Tobin, founder of innovation, and change consulting firm DDG said, “People with independent thinking habits are becoming more and more aware that working in a salaried job is no different than putting all your money in one place. The wise thing is to evaluate your presence in different places. That’s why every day you see more and more people trying to advance their careers in different directions.” says.
Similarly in futurist Faith Popcorn, she recommends that we be as agile as possible and develop different capabilities that we can bring to market.
Popcorn says that in the future we will all be working an average of 7.8 jobs and we will work for many different companies instead of being tied to one company.
According to Popcorn, we are in the middle of this huge change, and this change will radically change the entire society.
Foreseeing the future is part of Popcorn’s job and has proven over the years how good he is at it. Despite this, even he has trouble keeping up with and predicting this rapid change.
16 Jobs That Will Be Taken From Us by Technology in 20 Years
While some details about the future are quite exciting, some future scenarios are just as depressing. We would like to continue with examples in this direction, explained above for reasons.
In a study at Oxford University, 45 percent of existing occupations in the next 10 years will either disappear or be developed with little need for the workforce. Read – What is Serpentine Stone? Properties and Benefits
In other words, this change will greatly affect your future plans. Below we have listed 16 professions that will either disappear or become autonomous in the next 10 to 20 years.
Your business can be any business machine, car, etc. you may be unemployed soon.
Autonomous technology will be adopted in a short time in all areas such as taxis, buses, trucks, uber, cargo, and so on.
There are 15.5 million trucks in the United States alone. The sector employs 14 million people, 10 million of which are drivers. These people are in the first place against danger. Because autonomous vehicles do not need to rest, they can stay in motion 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and most importantly, we have already reached this technology.
This technology is already supported by the German government, and they take their driverless trucks business very seriously.
Elon Musk also states that his vehicles will become 100 percent autonomous in 1.2 years and that the governments will approve in the next 3 years.
All major automobile brands are competing with each other to develop electric and driverless vehicles, and it is certain that those who do not participate in this race will be left behind.
In the near future, driving a car will be like taking an elevator. You just press a button and the vehicle will take you wherever you want.
So what will happen to the millions of people who earn their living by chauffeuring? These people will have to improve themselves. While it’s easy in your 20s and 30s, it’s not clear what a taxi driver over 50 can do about it. See – Homemade Jam Tart Recipe Ingredients, Preparation
While it seems unlikely that these people will move from being taxi drivers to 3D designing for the virtual world, the future will show all this.
While in the past the number of farmers was unbelievable, recently the rate has decreased significantly. While you may still see human-powered agriculture being practiced in less developed parts of the world, in many places all production has become autonomous and is controlled by only a handful of educated people from their offices, thanks to wireless technology.
In the past, abundant manpower was needed for planting, planting, pest control, harvesting, and transportation. Now satellites and drones are used for tracking, soil or seeds fortified against pests. Planting and harvesting will soon become autonomous and are done quickly with tools designed for the job. Transport will likewise be able to move autonomously in the near future.
Soon, when a farmer is mentioned, a job similar to a banker and similar professions will come to mind. Because the number of people engaged in agricultural work will decrease considerably. If that doesn’t seem likely or plausible to you, the bad news is; that it’s already too late. Today, almost all of the major food and beverage brands are owned by only 10 companies. You might be interested in Zodiac Jewelry: What The Stars Say About The Jewelry That Suits Us
Which are these companies? Nestlê, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Unilever, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg’s, Mars, Associated British Foods, and Mondelez.
3. Printing and Publishing
Newspapers are over. Traditional media is dying before the internet. Not from newspaper pages anymore, but from Twitter, etc. You get news from sources. All the traditional media are fighting for survival, all against each other. Even strong brands are on the verge of extinction, no matter how much they invest in digital.
Information is now freely available, and only a few publishers are able to continue their business because of the trust placed in them. The best example of this is The New York Times, which shares its articles by offering a successful payment system to its readers.
With the change in news sources, big brands have a harder time finding a place in this online world. In the 1970s, the news was received on television. Now things are quite different.
There are over 1 million cashiers and salespeople in our country alone. This number is many times higher worldwide. These people may be unemployed sooner than they think. You may have seen the automatic cash registers available in some markets. Although there is still an attendant at the head of these safes for control and assistance, computers will take over all the tasks in the near future.
The big companies that have taken steps in this regard show in the best way how the future is shaped. Amazon bought Whole Foods, a chain of stores operating in the USA and selling healthy products, for close to 14 billion dollars.
After this purchase, Amazon started testing for its stores called Amazon Go. There will be no one working in these stores. You enter the store, buy the products you want, and leave. All the products you buy from the store will be automatically paid for from your credit card.
The sensors and technology required for Amazon Go are already available to us. All they need is a little more development.
Moreover, cashiers with artificial intelligence can work with the same performance 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
5. Travel Agencies
When was the last time you used a travel agency?
Skyscanner and similar applications to buy flight tickets, Booking.com, and Airbnb to find and book hotels are equipped to eliminate all agency needs.
You no longer need third parties to arrange flight tickets or hotels. You can easily do this on your own, or even tell Siri to do it for you.
6. Manufacturing Workers
After the industrial revolution, people working in the fields moved to factories and started to produce machines that made our lives easier.
In the continuation of the process, the same people created machines that could produce machines, and eventually, people were no longer needed.
There is a huge difference between the production method in car factories less than 100 years ago and the production method today.
While at the time many people were working in tandem to produce the tool, today we watch a simple software do all the work.
7. Logistics Officer
Although things are not what they used to be, there is an incredible number of dispatchers employed. The logistics officer generally makes sure that things go smoothly by planning and arranging everyone’s movement.
It doesn’t matter whether you work in the fire department, the airport, the police station, or the healthcare field. We already have the technology to do this job much more successfully than you do. All we need is the finishing touches and finding the best way to bring this technology to life. Just 5 years ago, you had to talk to someone to call a taxi. Now things have completely changed thanks to UBER and LYFT.
8. Waitress and Bartender
Although these occupations will not disappear completely, it is clear that many of the workers will be unemployed. Of course, a field that requires social relations is waitressing and bartending, but this may not always be the case. Sometimes you just want to sit at your table, have your food and drinks arrive as soon as possible, then get up and go.
All of these requests can be fulfilled with a properly prepared algorithm and an iPad. This new trend is already being used by many restaurants around the world.
9. Bank Clerk
Sorry, but we weren’t going to the banks to socialize anyway. Frankly, we never go to banks unless we have to. We control our accounts from a smartphone and now instead of filling out forms, we use automatic payments and similar methods for money transfers.
ATMs help you when you need cash. You can open an account on the internet almost anywhere in the world, and you only have to deal with bank employees when you need personal service. In many places, you can even do this by phone or video call.
10. Military Pilots and Soldiers
The military is the structure that follows the innovations most closely and puts these developments into practice as soon as possible. In the past, the most important factor in determining the outcome of wars was which side the soldiers were on, today the most important factor is technology.
No one goes into battle with his bayonet on his horse anymore, for that would be pretty pointless. While the pilot is sitting peacefully on the other side of the world, drones that can hit any target much more successfully than humans also prevent the pilot from being in danger.
On the other hand, the human factor is still in the military. These teams, known as special teams, come into play in areas where technology does not benefit.
11. Fast Food Employees
Employees of the fast-food chain Mcdonald’s in America have taken action in the recent past, demanding an hourly wage of $15. Similarly, wage increase demands of unskilled workers are a factor that triggers the introduction of automation.
Frankly, the fast-food industry is one of the easiest jobs to be autonomous, and in any case, it will start to be done by robots. The only reason this technology isn’t rushed to kick in is that you don’t want to tamper with an already well-functioning system. Now, all these actions and the possibility of government involvement bring the idea of automation back to the agenda.
12. Telephone Sales Personnel
You must have noticed that the number of people selling by phone is decreasing. The entire industry has been taken over by targeted ads, and for this purpose, personal information and internet usage data collected by technology giants are used.
For example, Facebook collects data by evaluating everything you like, click on, share, or are interested in, and sells this chunk of data to others. We, in turn, use this data for our own business and advertising.
Advertising is getting smarter and smarter thanks to this data, and ads come to you, one way or another, only on topics that are of interest to you. For this reason, selling over the phone becomes meaningless.
As you can see from this list, boring and repetitive tasks will start to be done by algorithms. As for accountants, their duty is; Evaluate and organize raw data. This is what these algorithms do best.
Given the number and earnings of accountants, it is certain that even if we spend billions of dollars to create the necessary algorithm, we will still be profitable. This is exactly why artificial intelligence developers are after accountants and lawyers.
According to the research conducted by Bloomberg in 2015, only 10% of those who trade on the stock market are real people, and the rest are computer programs called bots.
Where there is money, there will be people who want to automate the business and get ahead of their competitors. The center of this business is the stock markets.
When you enter the stock market and want to buy paper, you fill out the forms and indicate how much of each paper you will buy. On top of that, the bots in the system buy the papers you plan to buy, process them among themselves and sell them to you at a profit margin. Bots always win in this system.
15. Construction Workers
If we go back to Earth, we see that people still roll up their sleeves and work hard at some jobs. Although the figures are not exact, there are 200 million construction workers worldwide and this number is expected to increase with the demand in developing countries.
But it is not increasing. Because technology is constantly becoming more efficient and less costly. Now all developers need is more machines and more of what these machines can do. As technology advances, it seems that construction workers will suffer the same fate as agricultural workers. If you are not the owner of the construction company or a skilled employee who could be a part of automation, the future may not bring good things for you.
16. Movie Stars (Actors & Actresses)
You might think that people in jobs that require creativity and perspective are not threatened by automation. In general, you are not wrong, but there are some exceptions.
Actors and actresses are costly and difficult to work with. After you’ve invested hundreds of millions of dollars into a project, you don’t want it to depend on people.
Every year we come across more and more animated films. Because the animated movie characters do not age, do not complain, and do not cause problems in terms of money. What about movies? For example, Robert Downey Jr., the lead actor in Iron Man. He appeared on the screen less than the character created with CGI.
In the near future, artists will sell their 3D designs to large companies, which will re-create the designs on set as needed. Players will not need to come to the set. Pretty interesting isn’t it?
What we have described above, predictions, and occupations that are at risk and those that are not, were not written by accepting them as one hundred percent correct. It is considered impossible to predict precisely where technology will evolve. But it would be wise to prepare yourself for the future by keeping these considerations in mind.